✕ out — the step a country becomes mathematically impossible to win.
Stepped line = P(win) after each reveal, out-of-sample (the shown year is excluded from the fit), averaged over many independent SMC draws. Left of the dashed line: jury reveals (one bloc each); right: televote reveals (one country each, lowest jury first). The fixed point pool forces every probability to 0 or 1 by the final reveal. The tile below shows P(win) and the real running scoreboard at one step. On desktop it follows your mouse; click to lock it (mousing away reverts to the locked step). On touch, tap or drag the chart to move the cursor — it locks where you release. Tap a legend entry to toggle a line.